Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND GROWTH: Panel Data Analysis of Causal and Cyclical Patterns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Arai, Mahmood

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

  • Kinnwall, Mats

    ()
    (Handelsbanken Markets, Stockholm)

Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high central government deficits and inflation impair growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, we estimate intra-country effects of past inflation and budget deficits on growth. WE find no evidence suggesting growth costs of macroeconomic instability. Rather our results indicate reversed causality: the rate of growth determines inflation and deficits. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for two subperiods: the 1970s/early 1980s, influenced by adverse supply shocks, and the early 1990s characterised by adverse demand shocks. We argue that these results are compatible with a standard, stochastic macro theoretical framework.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www2.ne.su.se/paper/wp97_08.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 1997:8.

as in new window
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 17 Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:1997_0008

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
Email:
Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Growth; Inflation; Budget Deficits;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1990. "Why does money affect output? A survey," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 779-835 Elsevier.
  2. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards An Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  4. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:1997_0008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sten Nyberg).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.