Threshold cointegration relationships between oil and stock markets
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to study the oil price adjustment dynamics and to implicitly test the efficiency hypothesis for the oil market. Thus, we propose to study the oil price evolution in a nonlinear framework while testing the interdependence hypothesis between oil and stock markets. Four countries, the USA, France, Mexico and the Philippines are concerned by our findings which show several important results. Firstly, we show some evidence of linear linkage between stock markets and oil industry and we prove the existence of significant long-run relationships between oil and stock markets, indicating that the oil market is not efficient. Secondly, using nonlinear cointegration techniques, we propose a new nonlinear modeling to reproduce the oil price adjustment dynamics. It takes into account both stock and oil market variations. More importantly, the oil price is nonlinear, mean-reverting toward the equilibrium and with an adjustment speed that increases according to oil price deviations toward the stock market equilibrium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark in its series Discussion Papers of Business and Economics with number 3/2009.
Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
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Phone: 65 50 32 33
Fax: 65 50 32 37
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Oil price adjustment; stock markets; nonlinear cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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