Identifying Fiscal Inflation
AbstractFiscal theorists warn about the risk of future inflation as a consequence of current fiscal imbalances in the US. Because actual inflation remains historically low and data on inflation expectations do not corroborate such risks, warnings for fiscal inflation are often ignored in policy and academic circles. This paper shows that a canonical NK- DSGE model enables identifying an anticipated component of inflation expectations that is closely related to fiscal policy. Estimation results suggest that fiscal inflation concerns have induced a 1.6%-points increase in long-run inflation since 2001. The model also rationalizes why data on inflation expectations do not reveal such concerns outright.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 273.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Fiscal policy; inflation; news;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2013-11-02 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2013-11-02 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Woong Yong Park & Jae Won Lee & Saroj Bhattarai, 2012.
"Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles,"
2012 Meeting Papers
287, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Policy regimes, policy shifts, and U.S. business cycles," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013.
"On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation,"
Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order
80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2011.
"Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.