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Identifying Fiscal Inflation

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Author Info

  • De Graeve, Ferre

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Queijo von Heideken, Virginia

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Fiscal theorists warn about the risk of future inflation as a consequence of current fiscal imbalances in the US. Because actual inflation remains historically low and data on inflation expectations do not corroborate such risks, warnings for fiscal inflation are often ignored in policy and academic circles. This paper shows that a canonical NK- DSGE model enables identifying an anticipated component of inflation expectations that is closely related to fiscal policy. Estimation results suggest that fiscal inflation concerns have induced a 1.6%-points increase in long-run inflation since 2001. The model also rationalizes why data on inflation expectations do not reveal such concerns outright.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 273.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0273

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Keywords: Fiscal policy; inflation; news;

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References

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  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Policy regimes, policy shifts, and U.S. business cycles," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Perceptions and misperceptions of fiscal inflation," BIS Working Papers 364, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. John H. Cochrane, 2010. "Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2014. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 20194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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