Macroeconomic Impact on Expected Default Frequency
AbstractWe use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the corporate sector by conditioning on external forecasts of macroeconomic developments. Evaluations of the model show that it yields low forecast errors in terms of RMSE. The estimation results indicate that the interest rate has the strongest impact on expected default frequency among the included macroeconomic variables. The forecasts indicate that EDF will rise gradually over the forecast period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 219.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Expected Default Frequency; Macroeconomic Impact; Business cycle; vector error correction model; Financial stability; Financial and real economy interaction;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-02-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2008-02-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2008-02-02 (Risk Management)
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