Evaluation of exchange rate forecasts for the krona’s nominal effective exchange rate
AbstractIn this paper we evaluate the out of sample forecasting performance of a large number of models belonging to a popular class of exchange rate models. Forecasts of the Swedish nominal effective exchange rate for the period 1980-2000 are performed using both single equation estimation and VAR approaches. The forecast horizons used were from 1 to 12 quarters. None of the models evaluated could convincingly outperform a random walk alternative.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 133.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Exchange rates; monetary approach; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2002-03-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2002-03-14 (International Finance)
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