Empirical Estimation and the Quarterly Projection Model: An Example Focusing on the External Sector
AbstractIn this paper, we offer one possible way to estimate a key feature of the Bank of Canada’s main macroeconomic model, the Quarterly Projection Model or QPM. The key feature which is the focus of this study is the so-called "short-run equilibrium values" or SREQs which link the dynamic portion of QPM to its steady state. Our estimation is motivated by an unsatisfying feature of the current version of the SREQs. That is, they are produced using a mechanical filter which does not capture the influence of movements in other variables on the filtered time series. In other words, the current SREQs are exogenous. The estimation approach detailed in this paper attempts to make the SREQs endogenous with respect to fluctuations in key economic variables. The first part of this paper demonstrates how we are able to rewrite the external sector of QPM in a form that allows empirical estimation based on cointegration analysis. The second part of the paper then considers the implications for QPM of estimated, endogenous SREQs via both impulse response functions and stochastic simulations. In this latter part of the paper, we also present what we believe are novel approaches for estimating stochastic shocks for calibrated macroeconomic models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 104.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Macroeconomic modeling; Quarterly Projection Model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-10-09 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998.
"Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
- Amano, Robert A. & Wirjanto, Tony S., 1997. "Adjustment costs and import demand behavior: evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 461-476, June.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Robert Lafrance & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Exchange rate fundamentals and the Canadian dollar," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Spring), pages 17-33.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992.
"Liquidity effects, monetary policy, and the business cycle,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
70, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1113-36, November.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Lawrence J. Christiano, 1992. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects, monetary policy and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985.
"Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
- Daniel McFadden, 1987.
"A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration,"
464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kozicki, Sharon, 1999.
"Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 997-1028, June.
- Sharon Kozicki, 1996. "Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: implications for business cycle research," Research Working Paper 96-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.