Investment in Swedish Manufacturing: Analysis and Forecasts
AbstractThis paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobin’s average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1-2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 95.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Empirical Economics, 2004, pages 261-280.
Forecasting investment; Multivariate error-correction model; Neoclassical investment theory; Tobin's Q;
Other versions of this item:
- Bengt Assarsson & Claes Berg & Per Jansson, 2004. "Investment in Swedish manufacturing: Analysis and forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 261-280, 05.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2012. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Economics Papers 2012-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Johan Eklund, 2010. "Q-theory of investment and earnings retentions—evidence from Scandinavia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 793-813, December.
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