Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Investment in Swedish Manufacturing: Analysis and Forecasts

Contents:

Author Info

  • Assarsson, Bengt

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Berg, Claes

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

This paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobin’s average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1-2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/3529/WP_95.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 95.

as in new window
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Empirical Economics, 2004, pages 261-280.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0095

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Email:
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Forecasting investment; Multivariate error-correction model; Neoclassical investment theory; Tobin's Q;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2012. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Economics Papers 2012-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Johan Eklund, 2010. "Q-theory of investment and earnings retentions—evidence from Scandinavia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 793-813, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0095

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.