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Does permanent income determine the vote?

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Author Info
Lind, Jo Thori () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

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Abstract

I study to what extent voters are forward looking and how future income affects the voting decision. Particularly, I estimate the effect of both transitory and permanent income on preferences for different parties using a panel data set from the Norwegian Election Study. To construct a proxy for permanent income, I use stated expectations about the future economic situation and an estimate of how this affects future income. It turns out that once we include the proxy for permanent income, transitory income has no explanatory power on voting behaviour, supporting the hypothesis of forward looking voting. As expected, a high expected permanent income leads to Conservative voting and a low income to Socialist voting.

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File URL: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/memo/memopdf/memo2304.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 23/2003.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 28 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2003_023

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Related research
Keywords: Voting permanent income redistribution

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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