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Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Vectors: A Monte Carlo Study

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Author Info
Eriksson , Åsa () (Department of Economics, Lund University)
Abstract

In this paper, two tests for structural hypotheses on cointegration vectors are evaluated in a Monte Carlo study. The tests are the likelihood ratio test proposed by Johansen (1991) and the test for stationarity proposed by Kwiatkowski et al (1992). The analysis of the likelihood ratio test is extended with the inclusion of a Bartlett correction factor. Under circumstances common in empirical applications, all tests suffer from large size distortions and have low power to detect a false cointegration vector, but the Johansen (1991) test fares slightly better than the Kwiatkowski et al (1992) test. Applying a Bartlett correction factor in small samples improves to a large extent the likelihood ratio test.

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Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2004:29.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 17 Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2004_029

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegration; Structural hypothesis; Monte Carlo simulation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Omtzigt Pieter & Fachin Stefano, 2002. "Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections in the cointegrated VAR model," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0212, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  7. Zhou, Su, 2000. "Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations with Small Samples," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 629-40, October.
  8. Haug, Alfred A., 2002. "Testing Linear Restrictions On Cointegrating Vectors: Sizes And Powers Of Wald And Likelihood Ratio Tests In Finite Samples," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 505-524, April. [Downloadable!]
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fachin, Stefano, 2000. " Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests of Long-Run Relationships in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 543-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard G. Anderson & Hailong Qian & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Analysis of panel vector error correction models using maximum likelihood, the bootstrap, and canonical-correlation estimators," Working Papers 2006-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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