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Public debt and the effects of government expenditure on private consumption - A Kalman filter analysis of the Swedish experience 1970-1997

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Author Info
Johansson, Martin (Department of Economics, Lund University)
Jönsson, Kristian () (Department of Economics, Lund University)

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Abstract

Recently, it has been suggested that the effect of government expenditure on private consumption is dependent on the level of public debt. More specifically, a higher public debt implies a less Keynesian response in private consumption. In this paper we investigate if this theory is supported by Swedish data 1970-1997 by estimating a consumption function allowing for time-varying parameters. Our main finding is that the effect of government expenditure has become less Keynesian over time. This coincides with a large increase in public debt, lending support to the theoretical predictions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003:3.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 03 Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_003

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/
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Related research
Keywords: Government expenditure private consumption time-varying parameters

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2001. "The government spending and private consumption: a panel cointegration analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-108. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gourieroux, Christian & Holly, Alberto & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Likelihood Ratio Test, Wald Test, and Kuhn-Tucker Test in Linear Models with Inequality Constraints on the Regression Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 63-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Graham, Fred C, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 659-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Edgerton, David & Wells, Curt, 1994. "Critical Values for the Cusumsq Statistic in Medium and Large Sized Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 355-65, August.
  12. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers 2001/07, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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