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Public debt and the effects of government expenditure on private consumption - A Kalman filter analysis of the Swedish experience 1970-1997

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Author Info

  • Johansson, Martin

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Jönsson, Kristian

    ()
    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

Recently, it has been suggested that the effect of government expenditure on private consumption is dependent on the level of public debt. More specifically, a higher public debt implies a less Keynesian response in private consumption. In this paper we investigate if this theory is supported by Swedish data 1970-1997 by estimating a consumption function allowing for time-varying parameters. Our main finding is that the effect of government expenditure has become less Keynesian over time. This coincides with a large increase in public debt, lending support to the theoretical predictions.

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File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP03_3.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003:3.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 03 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_003

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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Keywords: Government expenditure; private consumption; time-varying parameters;

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  1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-50, July.
  8. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
  9. Gourieroux, Christian & Holly, Alberto & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Likelihood Ratio Test, Wald Test, and Kuhn-Tucker Test in Linear Models with Inequality Constraints on the Regression Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 63-80, January.
  10. Graham, Fred C, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 659-66, June.
  11. Edgerton, David & Wells, Curt, 1994. "Critical Values for the Cusumsq Statistic in Medium and Large Sized Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 355-65, August.
  12. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
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