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The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis' and Uncertainty About the Permanence of Fiscal Consolidations

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Author Info
Bergman, Michael () (Department of Economics, Lund University)
Abstract

This paper contrasts the effects of balanced-budget reductions in government consumption on private consumption in the permanent income model and a model allowing for precautionary savings. We compare impulse responses of private consumption to temporary and permanent shocks to government consumption when agents do not observe the shocks directly or can distinguish between temporary and permanent shocks. Our simulations suggest that uncertainty about the permanence of government consumption reductions affect both the impact and the duration of private consumption whereas precautionary saving motives only affect the impact.

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Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2000:2.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 06 Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2000_002

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/
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Related research
Keywords: Expansionary fiscal contraction; fiscal consolidations; uncertainty; precautionary savings;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries - Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Barry, Frank & Devereux, Michael B, 1995. "The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction' Hypothesis: A Neo-Keynesian Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 249-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kimball, Miles S & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 863-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mark Kazarosian, 1993. "Precautionary Savings- A Panel Study," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 247, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  14. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1987. "Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings," NBER Working Papers 2336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. U. Michael Bergman & Michael M. Hutchison, . "The 'German View', Fiscal Consolidation and Consumption Booms: Empirical Evidence from Denmark," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for a Model of Precautionary Saving," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 385-95, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-13, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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