Strömberg, David () (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)
Abstract
This paper delivers a precise recommendation for how presidential candidates should allocate their resources to maximize the probability of gaining a majority in the Electoral College. A two-candidate, probabilistic-voting model reveals that more resources should be devoted to states which are likely to be decisive in the electoral college and, at the same time, have very close state elections. The optimal strategies are empirically estimated using state-level opinion-polls available in September of the election year. The model’s recommended campaign strategies closely resemble those used in actual campaigns. The paper also analyses how the allocation of resources would change under the alternative electoral rule of a direct national vote for president.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number
706.
Length: 58 pages Date of creation: 11 Mar 2002 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0706
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
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