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Testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form

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Author Info

  • Péguin-Feissolle, Anne

    ()
    (GREQAM)

  • Strikholm, Birgit

    ()
    (Bank of Estonia)

  • Teräsvirta, Timo

    ()
    (CREATES, Department of Economics and Business)

Abstract

In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in a sample space. We study the performance of our tests by a Monte Carlo experiment and compare these to the most widely used linear test. Our tests appear to be well-sized and have reasonably good power properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 672.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2007
Date of revision: 18 Jan 2012
Publication status: Published as Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, Birgit Strikholm and Timo Teräsvirta, 'Testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form' in Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, 2013, pages 1063-1087.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0672

Note: This is a revised version (January 2012) of the paper.
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Keywords: Hypothesis testing; causality;

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References

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  1. Bell, David & Kay, Jim & Malley, Jim, 1996. "A non-parametric approach to non-linear causality testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 7-18, April.
  2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1998. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 1-26, January.
  3. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  4. Li, Jing, 2006. "Testing Granger Causality in the presence of threshold effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 771-780.
  5. repec:wop:humbsf:1996-96 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-26 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
  2. François Benhmad, 2011. "A wavelet analysis of oil price volatility dynamic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 792-806.
  3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2012. "Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in timber products: the case of oriented strand board in Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 40834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
  5. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2014. "Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena-Silvente, 2011. "Exporters' characteristics and the margins of trade," Working Papers 1117, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
  7. Jahyun Koo & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Further empirical evidence of nonlinearity in the us monetary policy rule," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2464-2477.

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