Is Momentum Due to Data-Snooping?
AbstractThis paper explores the profitability of portfolio-based momentum strategies. The data consists of all NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stocks on the CRSP database. The analysis considers the period July 1963 to December 2002 and the tests are performed on portfolios formed on industry, size and book-to-market. The departure from earlier studies lies in the way we test for profitability. To avoid the serious problem of data-snooping we apply the procedure provided by White (2000). Overall, we find strong evidence of a momentum effect where an investor takes a long position on the winner portfolio and a short position on the loser portfolio. Hence, we reject the hypothesis of weak market efficiency. Splitting the sample in two parts, 1963:07 to 1981:12 and 1982:01 to 2002:12 we found that the best momentum strategy was profitable during the first period and not during the second. The overall significance is thus driven by events in the earlier part of the sample and it appears that the market has become more efficient.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 536.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 25 Sep 2003
Date of revision:
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Momentum; Data-snooping; Bootstrap;
Other versions of this item:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-01-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-01-18 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-01-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2004-01-18 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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