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A Tale of Three Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: The Case of Sweden's GDP

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  • Ermini, Luigi

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

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    Abstract

    The paper compares the search for structural breaks in Sweden's GDP conducted with X-11 seasonally adjusted data, with seasonally unadjusted data, and with temporally aggregated data. A structural break (in 1980) is found only in the X-11 adjusted data, it is plausible to conclude that this break is due to data distortions (particularly, distortions caused by the application of the filter). However, this interpretation is only plausible a posteriori: had the seasonally unadjusted data not been available, the break found in the adjusted series could be just as well interpreted as a break in the economy and not as a break in the data. The study suggests that seasonally adjusted data should not be used when the unadjusted version is also available.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 230.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: 30 Mar 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0230

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    Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
    Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
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    Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
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    Related research

    Keywords: X-11 filter; seasonal adjustment; seasonal unit roots;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    2. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1997. "Do We Often Find ARCH Because Of Neglected Outliers?," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute EI 9706-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549, October.
    4. repec:fth:erroem:9706/a is not listed on IDEAS
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.

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