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Modeling Nordic Stock Returns with Asymmetric GARCH models

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  • Hagerud, Gustaf E.

    (Department of Finance)

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of asymmetric GARCH effects in a number of equity return series, and compare the modeling performance of seven different conditional variance models, within the parametric GARCH class of models. The data consists of daily returns for 45 Nordic stocks, during the period July 1991 to July 1996. The models investigated are: EGARCH, GJR, TGARCH, A- PARCH, GQARCH, VS-ARCH, and LSTGARCH. In all these models the conditional variance is a function of the sign of lagged residuals. Thus, the models can capture the often reported negative correlation between lagged returns and conditional variance. In the paper I also introduce three new procedures for asymmetry testing. The proposed LM tests, which are based on the results of Wooldridge [1991], allow for heterokurtosis under the null. Asymmetries are detected for only 12 of the 45 series. The specifications GJR, TGARCH, and GQARCH appear to be superior for modeling the dynamics of the conditional variance. Furthermore, I show that the use of robust test statistics is advisable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagerud, Gustaf E., 1997. "Modeling Nordic Stock Returns with Asymmetric GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 164, Stockholm School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0164
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Kamaly & Eskandar Tooma, 2009. "Calendar anomolies and stock market volatility in selected Arab stock exchanges," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 881-892.
    2. M. Karanasos & J. Kim, 2003. "Moments of the ARMA--EGARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 146-166, June.
    3. Tsatsura, Oleg, 2010. "A Smooth Transition GARCH-M Model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 17(1), pages 45-61.
    4. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, "undated". "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Huang, Wei & Goto, Satoru & Nakamura, Masatoshi, 2004. "Decision-making for stock trading based on trading probability by considering whole market movement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 227-241, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; asymmetry; equity returns; model evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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