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On the Value of Changes in Life Expectancy: Blips versus Parametric Changes

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Author Info
Johannesson, Magnus () (Department of Economics)
Johansson, Per-Olov () (Department of Economics)
Löfgren, Karl-Gustaf (Dept. of Economics, University of Umeå)

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Abstract

Previous studies indicate that the general public would prefer to reallocate medical resources from old people to young ones, and also has a low WTP for measures that increase the survival probability at an advanced age. In this paper, we present an analysis of the value of a ‘blip’, i.e. an immediate small reduction, in the hazard rate for a random sample of Swedes. Since the risk reduction is age-independent (2 ‘extra saved lives’ out of 10,000 during the next year), we can examine how the WTP and the implied value of a statistical life vary with age. We also show how blip data can be used to obtain a lower bound for the value of a parametric, i.e. permanent, change in an individual’s hazard rate. This approach avoids asking respondents to perform the tricky task of estimating, for example, their entire future survival and income paths, a task which is necessary in order to estimate the WTP for a change lasting over their remaining life cycle. The estimated willingness to pay as well as the implied value of a statistical life are very reasonable, The value of life exhibits an inverted-U shape with respect to age, peaking at the age of 40, and falls in the $3 to $7 million interval where most reasonable estimates are clustered according to Viscusi’s (1992) survey.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 152.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1997, pages 221-240.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0152

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Related research
Keywords: Willingness to pay; insurance; life expectancy; statistical life; ageing;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - General Welfare
D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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  1. Joseph E. Aldy & W. Kip Viscusi, 2004. "Age Variations in Workers' Value of Statistical Life," NBER Working Papers 10199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andersson, Henrik, 2006. "Willingness to Pay for Road Safety and Estimates of the Risk of Death: Evidence from a Swedish Contingent Valuation Study," Working Papers 2006:5, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
  3. Strand, Jon, 2009. "Individual and household value of mortality reductions with intrahousehold bargaining," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2004:2, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thomas Kniesner & W. Viscusi & James Ziliak, 2006. "Life-Cycle Consumption and the Age-Adjusted Value of Life," Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1524-1524. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jin-Tan Liu & James K. Hammitt, 2003. "Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk," NBER Working Papers 10012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jon Strand, 2005. "Individual and Household Values of Mortality Reductions with Intrahousehold Bargaining," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 217-236, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Aldy, Joseph E. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2006. "Adjusting the Value of a Statistical Life for Age and Cohort Effects," Discussion Papers dp-06-19, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Strand, Jon, 2009. "Public- and private-good values of statistical lives Results from a combined choice-experiment and contingent-valuation survey," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2002:2, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme. [Downloadable!]
  9. Isaac Ehrlich & Yong Yin, 2005. "Explaining Diversities in Age-Specific Life Expectancies and Values of Life Saving: A Numerical Analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 129-162, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Strand.J., 2001. "Public- and private-good values of statistical lives : results from a combined choice-experiment and contingent-valuation survey," Memorandum 31/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. James Hammitt & Jin-Tan Liu, 2004. "Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 73-95, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mandy Ryan & Verity Watson, 2009. "Comparing welfare estimates from payment card contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 389-401. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sujitra Vassanadumrongdee & Shunji Matsuoka, 2005. "Risk Perceptions and Value of a Statistical Life for Air Pollution and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Bangkok, Thailand," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 261-287, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Viscusi, W. Kip & Aldy, Joseph, 2006. "Labor Market Estimates of the Senior Discount for the Value of Statistical Life," Discussion Papers dp-06-12, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Brännlund, Runar & Kriström, Bengt, 1999. "Too Hot to Handle? Benefits and costs of stimulating the use of biofuels in the Swedish Heating Sector," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 518, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Neil Bruce & Robert Halvorsen, 2007. "The Marginal Willingness to Pay for Longevity: A Better Way to Value Changes in Mortality Hazard," Working Papers UWEC-2007-04-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  17. Per-Olov JOHANSSON, 2006. "On the definition and estimation of the value of a “statistical life”," Departemental Working Papers 2006-23, Department of Economics University of Milan Italy. [Downloadable!]
  18. Anna Alberini, 2004. "Robustness of VSL Values from Contingent Valuation Surveys," Working Papers 2004.135, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ted Bergstrom & Rod Garratt & Damien Sheehan-Connor, 2008. "One Chance in a Million: Altruism and the Bone Marrow Registry," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 3-07, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Anna Alberini & Aline Chiabai, 2006. "Urban Environmental Health and Sensitive Populations: How Much Are the Italians Willing to Pay to Reduce Their Risks?," ERSA conference papers ersa06p293, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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