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Rational Bubbles and Economic Crises: A Quantitative Analysis

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  • Domeij, David

    (Dept. of Economics)

  • Ellingsen, Tore

    (Dept. of Economics)

Abstract

We extend the Bewley-Aiyagari-Huggett model by incorporating an incomplete stock market and a persistent income process. In this quantitative general equilibrium framework, non-fundamental asset values are both large and desirable for realistic parameter values. However, if expectations shift from one equilibrium to another, some markets may crash as others soar. In the presence of nominal assets and contracts, such movements can be highly detrimental. Our analysis is consistent with the view that some of the world’s large recessions were caused by an avoidable failure of monetary and fiscal policy to prevent deflation in the aftermath of bursting asset price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Domeij, David & Ellingsen, Tore, 2015. "Rational Bubbles and Economic Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," SSE Working Paper Series in Economics 2015:1, Stockholm School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastec:2015_001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Incomplete Markets; Depressions; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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