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The Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices: An Illustration of (lambda, sigma-2) Analysis

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Author Info

  • Bask, Mikael

    ()
    (Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Finland)

  • Widerberg, Anna

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

The aim of this letter is to discuss and illustrate what we call (lambda, sigma-2)analysis, which is a method to distinguish between the stability of a stochastic dynamic system and the volatility of a variable generated by this system. It is also emphasized that this method is able to generate new research questions for economic theory. The data set used in an empirical illustration is spot electricity prices from Nord Pool.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/7389
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 267.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 09 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0267

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Keywords: Smooth Lyapunov Exponents; Stability; Stochastic Dynamic System; Volatility;

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  1. Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2003/455, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  2. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
  3. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
  4. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
  5. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September.
  6. Mikael Bask & Tung Liu & Anna Widerberg, 2006. "The Stability of Electricity Prices: Estimation and Inference of the Lyapunov Exponent," Working Papers 200603, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006.
  7. Mikael Bask & Jens Lundgren & Niklas Rudholm, 2009. "Market power in the expanding Nordic power market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1035-1043.
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Cited by:
  1. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Measuring potential market risk," Research Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland.

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