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The Dark Side of Wage Indexed Pensions

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  • Carlsson, Evert

    ()
    (Centre for finance, School of Business, Economics and Law)

  • Erlandzon, Karl

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates some welfare effects of forced saving through a mandatory pension scheme. The framework for the analysis is a life-cycle model of a borrowing constrained individual´s consumption and portfolio choice in the presence of uncertain labour income and realistically calibrated tax and pension systems. Pension benefits stem from both a defined benefit and a notionally defined contribution part, the latter being indexed to stochastic aggregate labour income. We show that agents attribute little value to their pension savings in early life. Furthermore, we estimate the welfare loss for individuals in mid-life associated with the dependency between pension returns and labour income growth to 1.2% in annual consumption.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/2856
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 178.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 23 Sep 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0178

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
    Phone: 031-773 10 00
    Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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    Keywords: Life-cycle; portfolio choice; pensions;

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    References

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    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alicia H. Munnell & Mauricio Soto, 2005. "What Does Price Indexing Mean for Social Security Benefits?," Just the Facts jtf_14, Center for Retirement Research.
    3. Glenn R. Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, . "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco & Francisco J. Gomes & Pascala J. Maenhout, 2000. "Investing Retirement Wealth? A Life-Cycle Model," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1896, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Edin, P.-A. & Fredriksson, P., 2000. "LINDA - Longitudinal INdividual DAta for Sweden," Papers 2000:19, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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    7. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
    8. Deaton, A., 1989. "Saving And Liquidity Constraints," Papers 153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    9. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    10. Duncan, Greg J & Hill, Daniel H, 1985. "An Investigation of the Extent and Consequences of Measurement Error in Labor-Economic Survey Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 508-32, October.
    11. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    14. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    15. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    16. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    17. Eugene Fama & F. & Kenneth R. French, . "The Equity Premium."," CRSP working papers 522, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    18. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Carlsson, Evert & Erlandzon, Karl, 2006. "The Bright Side of Shiller-Swaps: A Solution to Inter-generational Risk-sharing," Working Papers in Economics 233, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 24 Oct 2006.

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