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A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996

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Author Info

  • Durevall, Dick

    () (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

  • Ndung'u, Njuguna S.

    (Department of Economics, University of Nairobi)

Abstract

This paper develops an error correction model with the aim of analysing the behaviour of prices in Kenya during 1974 -1996. In estimating the model, we first test for cointegration in the money and foreign exchange markets, using the Johansen procedure. The cointegrating vectors are then included in an autoregressive distributed-lag model, and a general-to-specific procedure is applied to obtain a parsimonious, empirically constant, error correction model. We find that in the long run inflation emanates from movements in the exchange rate, foreign prices, and terms of trade. The error correction term for the monetary sector does not enter the model, but money supply and the interest rate influence inflation in the short run. Inflation inertia is found to be an important determinant of inflation up until 1993, when about 40% of the current inflation is carried over to the next quarter. After 1993, inertia drops to about 10%. The dynamics of inflation are also influenced by food supply constraints, proxied by maize-price inflation. These findings indicate that the exchange rate is likely to be a more efficient nominal anchor than money supply, and that inflation could be made more stable by policies that secure the supply of maize during droughts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 7.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 07 Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of African Economies, 2001, pages 91-124.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0007

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Keywords: Kenya; Inflation; Inertia; Money demand; Food supply; Real exchange rate; Terms of Trade; Cointegration; Error Correction Model;

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Cited by:
  1. Nandwa, B., 2006. "Implication of the Taylor Rule on Real Exchange Rate Movement in Kenya," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
  2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
  3. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Franz Krige Siebrits & Elizabeth Wambach Niedermeier, 2004. "The determinants of inflation in South Africa: An econometric analysis," Research Papers RP_143, African Economic Research Consortium.
  4. LOENING, Josef & TAKADA, Hideki, 2008. "Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 159-176.

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