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Arbetslöshetsförsäkringen och arbetslösheten - En reanalys av IFAUs studie

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  • Johansson, Sten

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

  • Selén, Jan

    (Trade Union Institute for Economic Research)

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    Abstract

    Att ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen kan ha viss effekt på arbetslösheten är knappast ifrågasatt. Diskussionen i forskningen gäller mest hur stor den effekten kan tänkas vara i praktiken. Det statliga Institutet för Arbetsmarknadspolitisk Utvärdering (IFAU) publicerade i december 1999 en rapport enligt vilken sänkningen 1996 av ersättningsgraden i arbetslöshetsförsäkringen ledde till en 10-procentig höjning av övergångarna till arbete. Detta implicerar en elasticitet så hög som 1,6. Tidigare studier har funnit elasticiteter mellan 0,2 och 0,9. Eftersom IFAUs resultat har både utomvetenskapliga och inomvetenskapliga implikationer av stor vikt har vi reanalyserat undersökningen. I vår reanalys finner vi att signifikanstest och ett stort bortfall av individer i kontrollgruppen leder till osäkerhet om de sambandens generaliserbarhet. Vi visar att experimentgrupp och kontrollgrupp står inför olika arbetsmarknader genom de stora och i vissa avseenden kategoriska skillnaderna i gruppernas sammansättning. Vi visar att de också beter sig olika när de blir arbetslösa. Vidare gäller inte en linjär monoton dos/effekt-relation för det samband som forskarna funnit för reform-effektvariabeln och ”effekten” vid samma ”dos” varierar kraftigt mellan olika grupper. Den antecipationseffekt som forskarna funnit innebär att ”reformeffekten” är en form av skensamband. Vi har till slut också kunnat visa hur ett skensamband uppkommer genom att måltillståndet ”i arbete” visar sig vara överraskande heterogent.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Trade Union Institute for Economic Research in its series Working Paper Series with number 162.

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    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: 13 Dec 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:fiefwp:0162

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    Related research

    Keywords: Arbetslöshetsförsäkring; hasardregression; reformeffekt;

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    Cited by:
    1. Arai, Mahmood & Skogman Thoursie, Peter, 2001. "Incentives and Selection in Cyclical Absenteeism," Working Paper Series 167, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Strauss, Tove, 2000. "Economic Reforms and the Poor," Working Paper Series 164, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Strauss, Tove, 2000. "Structural Reforms, Uncertainty, and Private Investment," Working Paper Series 165, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Johansson, Sten & Selén, Jan, 2002. "Coping with Heterogeneities in the Difference in Differences Design," Working Paper Series 183, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.

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