Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting demand for high speed rail

Contents:

Author Info

  • Börjesson, Maria

    ()
    (KTH)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing travel time elasticities for long-distance rail travel in the literature and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish official long-distance model and its forecasted demand for a proposed new HSR track, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The official linear-in-parameters long-distance model is also compared to a model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long-distance travel, long-distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Swedish state-of-practice model, and similar models, is indeed able to predict the demand for a HSR reasonably well. The non-linear model, however, has better model fit and slightly higher elasticities.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/SWoPEc/CTS2012-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) in its series Working papers in Transport Economics with number 2012:12.

    as in new window
    Length: 19 pages
    Date of creation: 03 May 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_012

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
    Web page: http://www.kth.se/abe/om_skolan/organisation/centra/cts

    Related research

    Keywords: High speed rail; Travel demand; Forecasting; Air-rail share; Cost-benefit analysis;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2012. "Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:8, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    2. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang, 2010. "High-speed rail in Taiwan: New experience and issues for future development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 51-63, March.
    3. Roger Vickerman, 1997. "High-speed rail in Europe: experience and issues for future development," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-38.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mats Berggren).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.