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The Random Walk Of Stock Prices: Implications Of Recent Nonpara-Metric Tests

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Author Info
Dahl, Christian M. (Purdue University)
Nielsen, Steen (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

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Abstract

This paper applies six recently developed nonparametric tests of serial independence

to monthly US stock returns. Findings of previous studies based on the BDS test are sup-ported

since most of the new tests also reject the random walk hypothesis. Furthermore,

power properties of the new tests are compared with those of the BDS test. The latter has

much power against ARCH and GARCH alternatives whereas some of the more recent

tests are superior against other alternatives. Finally, the power study of this paper shows,

contrary to common belief, that ARCH and GARCH effects do not seem to explain rejec-tion

of the random walk.

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File URL: http://openarchive.cbs.dk/cbsweb/handle/10398/7650
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 07-2001.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 04 Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2001_007

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Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Phone: 38 15 25 75
Fax: 38 15 26 65
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Related research
Keywords: Random walk; nonparametric tests; stock returns;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ahmad, Ibrahim A. & Li, Qi, 1997. "Testing independence by nonparametric kernel method," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 201-210, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yongmiao Hong & Halbert White, 2005. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Nonparametric Entropy Measures of Serial Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 837-901, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Donald J. Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1518, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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