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Do private signals of a bank’s creditworthiness predict the bank’s CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem's overnight loan rates

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Author Info

  • Tölö , Eero

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Jokivuolle, Esa

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Viren, Matti

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

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    Abstract

    We investigate the relationship between the daily average interbank overnight borrowing rate (AOR) and the credit default swap price (CDS) of 60 banks using the Eurosystem’s proprietary data from mid-2008 to mid-2013. We find that the AOR which is observable only by the competent Eurosystem authorities leads the CDS at least by one day. The lead was concentrated on days of market stress for banks which mainly borrow from “relationship” lender banks. Such borrower banks are typically smaller, have weak ratings, and likely reside in crisis countries.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1409.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 9/2014.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 26 Feb 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2014_009

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    Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: overnight loans rates; credit default swap; TARGET2; Eurosystem; early-warning indicators;

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    1. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, 08.
    2. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    3. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2013. "How to measure the unsecured money market? The Eurosystem's implementation and validation using TARGET2 data," DNB Working Papers 369, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Marsh, Ian W. & Wagner , Wolf, 2012. "Why is price discovery in credit default swap markets news-specific?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2012, Bank of Finland.
    5. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    6. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    7. Juan Ignacio Pena & Santiago Forte, 2006. "CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs," Business Economics Working Papers wb063310, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    8. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
    9. Berg, Tobias, 2010. "The term structure of risk premia: new evidence from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1165, European Central Bank.
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    11. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    12. Acharya, Viral V & Johnson, Tim, 2005. "Insider Trading in Credit Derivatives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Bräuning, Falk & Fecht, Falko, 2012. "Relationship lending in the interbank market and the price of liquidity," Discussion Papers 22/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    14. Ian W. Marsh & Wolf Wagner, 2012. "Why is Price Discovery in Credit Default Swap Markets News-Specific?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-033/IV/DSF33, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
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