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Learning by disinflating

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Author Info

  • Barnett, Alina

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Ellison, Martin

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Oxford, and Bank of Finland)

Abstract

Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy. In this paper we are particularly interested in how policymakers can themselves learn by disinflating. The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on the learning of private agents during a disinflation. We build a model where both the policymaker and private agents learn, and ask what happens if the policymaker has to disinflate to satisfy a new central bank mandate specifying greater emphasis on inflation stabilisation. In this case, our results show that inflation may fall dramatically before it gradually rises to its new long run level. The potential for inflation to undershoot its long run level during a disinflationary episode suggests that caution should be exercised when assessing the success of any change in the policymaker’s mandate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 10/2012.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 30 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_010

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Keywords: disinflation; escape dynamics; learning; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 48, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Apr 2001.
  2. Michael Bordo & Christopher Erceg & Andrew Levin & Ryan Michaels, 2007. "Three great American disinflations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
  4. Nicolae, Anamaria & Nolan, Charles, 2006. "The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 47-66, February.
  5. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  7. Goodfriend, Marvin & King, Robert G., 2005. "The incredible Volcker disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 981-1015, July.
  8. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bruce McGough, 2003. "Shocking Escapes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 294, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200946, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008. "Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 257-285, April.
  13. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 859-878, 08.
  14. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02.
  15. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 457-467, 03.
  16. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Volatile Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 981-993, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2012. "Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information," Economics Working Papers 1338, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 867, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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