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Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis

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Author Info

  • Paloviita, Maritta

    () (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Kinnunen, Helvi

    () (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

Using real time data from the OECD and fiscal policy reaction functions, this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Both discretionary plans for the budget year and policy changes during budget implementation stages are investigated. The main focus is on the fiscal adjustment to the recent financial and economic crisis. The results suggest that during the time of monetary union (EMU) euro area planned fiscal policies have been long-term oriented and counter-cyclical. In the implementation stages new policy decisions have been made in response to unexpected economics developments. We provide evidence that the crisis had a clear impact on discretionary policies. Due to the resultant increase in uncertainty, the crisis spotlighted the impact of cyclical developments on fiscal planning. In the implementation stages, huge forecast errors in connection with planned policy were observed. As a consequence, new decisions were made in order to alleviate the negative impacts of the crisis on euro area economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 21/2011.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 14 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2011_021

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; real time data; planning stage; implementation stage; cyclical sensitivity; economic crisis;

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References

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  1. Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2011. "Endogenous Market Structures and Labor Market Dynamics," Quaderni di Dipartimento 139, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, revised Feb 2011.
  2. Guido Ascari & Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2010. "Limited Asset Market Participation: Does it Really Matter for Monetary Policy?," Quaderni di Dipartimento 124, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  3. Francis, Bill & Hasan, Iftekhar & Sharma, Zenu, 2011. "Incentives and innovation: evidence from CEO compensation contracts," Research Discussion Papers 17/2011, Bank of Finland.
  4. Chen , Yehning & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2011. "Subordinated debt, market discipline, and bank risk," Research Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland.
  5. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Marton, Katherin, 2011. "Bank efficiency in transition economies: recent evidence from South-Eastern Europe," Research Discussion Papers 5/2011, Bank of Finland.
  6. Crowley , Patrick M & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2011. "The great moderation under the microscope: decomposition of macroeconomic cycles in US and UK aggregate demand," Research Discussion Papers 13/2011, Bank of Finland.
  7. Nyberg, Peter & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2011. "Descriptive analysis of Finnish equity, bond and money market returns," Research Discussion Papers 14/2011, Bank of Finland.
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Cited by:
  1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 35/2012, Bank of Finland.

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