A new approach to analyzing convergence and synchronicity in growth and business cycles: cross recurrence plots and quantification analysis
AbstractConvergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first to address the issue using cross recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear to be non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here ‘intermittency’ in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could introduce further challenges in managing the country-specific effects of the common monetary policy in the euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 16/2010.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Euro area; business cycles; growth cycles; recurrence plots; non-stationarity; complex systems; surrogate analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Crowley, Patrick & Aaron, Schultz, 2010. "A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis," MPRA Paper 23728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-09-25 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-09-25 (European Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-09-25 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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