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A new approach to analyzing convergence and synchronicity in growth and business cycles: cross recurrence plots and quantification analysis

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  • Crowley, Patrick M

    ()
    (Texas A&M University and Bank of Finland Research)

  • Schultz, Aaron

    ()
    (Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging and Massachusetts General Hospital)

Abstract

Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first to address the issue using cross recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear to be non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here ‘intermittency’ in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could introduce further challenges in managing the country-specific effects of the common monetary policy in the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 16/2010.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2010_016

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Keywords: Euro area; business cycles; growth cycles; recurrence plots; non-stationarity; complex systems; surrogate analysis;

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  1. Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2005, Bank of Finland.
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
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  6. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
  8. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
  9. Kontolemis, Zenon G, 1997. "Does Growth Vary over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence from the G7 Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 441-60, August.
  10. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  11. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, 03.
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