Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Effects of unobserved defaults on correlation between probability of default and loss given default on mortgage loans

Contents:

Author Info

  • Palmroos, Peter

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper demonstrates how the observed correlation between probability of default and loss given default depends on the fact that defaults in which collateral provides 100% recovery are not observed. Creditors see only the defaults of mortgagors who suffer from a fall in collateral value to less than the remaining loan principal. Consequently, the default data available to creditors amounts to a mere truncated sample from the underlying population of defaults. Correlation estimates based on such truncated samples are biased and differ substantially from estimates derived from representative non-truncated samples. Moreover, the observed correlation between default probability and loss given default is sensitive to the truncation point, which may explain the differences in correlation estimates found in the literature. This may also explain why correlation estimates seem to be specific to cycle phase.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0903netti.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 3/2009.

    as in new window
    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: 21 Jan 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2009_003

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: credit risks; mortgage loans; truncated distributions; sample selection; log-normal distribution;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
    2. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
    4. Sanjiv Das, 2007. "Basel II: Correlation Related Issues," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 17-38, October.
    5. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
    6. Jon Frye, 2000. "Collateral damage detected," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
    7. Edward I. Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2002. "The link between default and recovery rates: effects on the procyclicality of regulatory capital ratios," BIS Working Papers 113, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
    9. Erlenmaier, Ulrich & Gersbach, Hans, 2001. "Default probabilities and default correlations," Research Notes 01-5, Deutsche Bank Research.
    10. Paraskevi Dimou & Colin Lawrence & Alistair Milne, 2005. "Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 135-161, October.
    11. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2009_003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.