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Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis

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Author Info
Lassila , Jukka () (Research Institute of the Finnish Economy)
Valkonen, Tarmo () (Research Institute of the Finnish Economy)
Abstract

This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 28/2008.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2008_028

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: public finance; fiscal sustainability; uncertainty; stochastic simulations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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