Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations
AbstractThis paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to proxy inflation expectations. The results suggest that, compared with a closed economy New Keynesian Phillips curve, euro area inflation dynamics are better captured by the open economy specification. Moreover, in the open economy context, and even if we allow for persistence in expectations, the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is needed in order to capture the euro area inflation process properly. We also provide some evidence that in recent years of low and stable inflation, euro area inflation dynamics have become more forward-looking and the link between inflation and domestic demand has weakened (ie the euro area Phillips curve has flattened). On the other hand, in low-inflation euro area countries the inflation process seems to have been more forward-looking already since the early 1980s.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 16/2008.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jun 2008
Date of revision:
New Keynesian Phillips curve; open economy; expectations; euro area;
Other versions of this item:
- Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 233-254.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-07-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2008-07-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-07-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-07-14 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2008-07-14 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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- Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, .
"Key elements of global inflation,"
09/22, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Robert Anderton & Paul Hiebert, . "The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "On the Generality of the New Keynesian Phillips Curves," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(55), pages 7-32, July - Se.
- Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & D’Agostino, Antonello & Dieppe, Alistair & Hurtado, Samuel & Karlsson, Tohmas & Ortega, Eva & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
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