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Market power and merger simulation in retail banking

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Author Info
Molnár, József () (Bank of Finland Research)

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Abstract

This paper tests market power in the banking industry. Price-cost margins predicted by different oligopoly models are calculated using discrete-choice demand estimates of own-price and cross-price elasticities. These predicted price-cost margins are then compared with price-cost margins computed using observed interest rates and estimates of marginal costs. This paper is among the first to apply this methodology on a detailed, bank-level dataset from the retail banking sector. It extends on previous papers and illustrates the advantages of structural modelling by simulating a counterfactual merger experiment with a number of mergers, each of which involves two major banks, and studying the unilateral effect of the mergers on interest rates. This provides more evidence that concentration measures (such as the Herfindahl index) could be very misleading indicators of market power.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 4/2008.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 27 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2008_004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: demand; discrete choice; product differentiation; banking; market power; merger simulation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. De Bandt, Olivier & Davis, E. Philip, 2000. "Competition, contestability and market structure in European banking sectors on the eve of EMU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1045-1066, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Astrid A. Dick, 2002. "Demand estimation and consumer welfare in the banking industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, November-. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  5. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1982. "The oligopoly solution concept is identified," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 87-92. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nevo, Aviv, 1998. "Identification of the oligopoly solution concept in a differentiated-products industry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 391-395, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1987. "The price-concentration relationship in banking," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  8. Ivaldi, Marc & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Quantifying the effects from horizontal mergers in European competition policy," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 669-691, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Kim, Moshe, 1985. "Scale Economies in Banking: A Methodological Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 96-102, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Aviv Nevo, 1998. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," NBER Working Papers 6387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. József Molnár & Márton Nagy & Csilla Horváth, 2007. "A Structural Empirical Analysis of Retail Banking Competition: the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2007/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  12. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Corts, Kenneth S., 1998. "Conduct parameters and the measurement of market power," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 227-250, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bikker, Jacob A. & Haaf, Katharina, 2002. "Competition, concentration and their relationship: An empirical analysis of the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2191-2214, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Neven, Damien & Roller, Lars-Hendrik, 1999. "An aggregate structural model of competition in the European banking industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 1059-1074, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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