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Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade

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  • Bask, Mikael

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

Abstract

We embed an expectations-based optimal policy rule into a DSGE model for a small open economy that is augmented with trend extrapolation or chartism, which is a form of technical trading, in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. We find that a unique REE that is least-squares learnable is often the outcome when there is a limited amount of trend extrapolation, but that a less flexible inflation rate targeting may cause a multiplicity of REE. We also compute impulse-response functions for key macroeconomic variables to study how the economy returns to steady state after being hit by a shock.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0721netti.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 21/2007.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2007_021

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Related research

Keywords: determinacy; DSGE model; least-squares learning; targeting rule; technical trading; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. James Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Working Papers 11, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824, October.
  3. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
  4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  6. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  14. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
  15. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Research Department Publications 4479, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  17. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-30, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Oct 2003.
  18. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  19. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  20. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  21. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
  23. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  24. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  25. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
  26. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  27. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  28. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  29. Mikael Bask, 2007. "Chartism and exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 301-316.
  30. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Bask, Mikael, 2011. "A Case for Interest Rate Inertia in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2011:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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