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Financial fragility, macroeconomic shocks and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Europe

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Author Info
Pesola, Jarmo () (Bank of Finland Research)
Abstract

This paper tests the hypothesis that the more fragile a banking system is, the more likely it is to experience problems when an unexpected shock hits. The empirical framework where this test is conducted is a reduced form model, where macroeconomic factors explain banks’ loan losses. The dependent variable is the ratio of net loan losses to lending in a panel comprising the banking sectors of nine sample countries. An econometric model is estimated on pooled annual data mostly covering the period from the early 1980s to 2002. There are three separate explanatory terms. Two of these include a surprise change both in incomes and real interest rates. Both form a separate cross-product term with lagged aggregate indebtedness. The lagged dependent variable is the third explanatory term possibly capturing the feedback effect from loan losses back to the real economy. The underlying macroeconomic account that this paper puts forward is that loan losses seem basically to be generated by strong adverse aggregate shocks under high exposure of banks to such shocks. The model has been used in connection with stress testing in the Bank of Finland.

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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 15/2007.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 09 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2007_015

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: financial fragility; unexpected macroeconomic shock; loan loss; stress test;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. repec:fth:bfdipa:6/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Raghuram Rajan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/63, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  9. Mahinder Singh Gill & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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