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Population ageing in a small open economy – some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model

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Author Info
Kilponen , Juha () (Bank of Finland Research)
Kinnunen , Helvi () (Bank of Finland)
Ripatti , Antti () (Bank of Finland)

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Abstract

This paper extends Gertler’s (1999) tractable overlapping generations model with life-cycle features by allowing for distortionary taxation, demographic transition and stochastic variation in demographic structure. The model is then used to study demographic change in the small open economy of Finland. Simulations highlight the key role played by labour market responses to ageing. When the responses of labour supply, wages, and hence private consumption, to higher taxation are consistently accounted for, population ageing has clearly much larger effects on public finance, when compared to mechanical sustainability calculations. Stochastic simulations suggest that lengthening of working time has only a modest alleviating effect on the fiscal burden of ageing. This is due to the fact that stochastic variation in the length of working time has only a relatively small effect on the model’s dependency ratio. Variation in life expectancy is clearly much more important.

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File URL: http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/63E5D1D9-765E-4493-8F6F-F4CA4F5AEAAC/0/0628netti.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 28/2006.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 23 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_028

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: ageing; general equilibrium; public finance; demographic uncertainty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Niinimäki, Juha-Pekka & Takalo, Tuomas & Kultti, Klaus, 2006. "The role of comparing in financial markets with hidden information," Research Discussion Papers 1/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Siklos, Pierre & Bohl , Martin, 2006. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," Research Discussion Papers 2/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy," Working Papers 97-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy, Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2005. "Probabilistic Aging," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets and Pension Reform in Austria," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-03, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Andrea Ferrero, 2006. "Demographic Trends, Fiscal Policy and Trade Deficits," 2006 Meeting Papers 444, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Farmer, Roger E A, 1990. "Rince Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 43-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility without the contrivance of fundamentals and the failure of PPP," Research Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Adaptive learning in an expectational difference equation with several lags: selecting among learnable REE," Research Discussion Papers 7/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bask , Mikael & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2006. "Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs," Research Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lanne , Markku & Vesala , Timo, 2006. "The effect of a transaction tax on exchange rate volatility," Research Discussion Papers 11/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Railavo , Jukka, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  19. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Sun, Xian, 2008. "Financial market integration and the value of global diversification: Evidence for US acquirers in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1522-1540, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Juha Kilponen & Torsten Santavirta, 2004. "Competition and Innovation - Microeconometric Evidence using Finnish Data," Research Reports 113, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
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  22. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kinnunen, Helvi, 2008. "Government funds and demographic transition – alleviating ageing costs in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 21/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lassila , Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2008. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis," Research Discussion Papers 28/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marsh , Ian W, 2006. "The effect of lenders’ credit risk transfer activities on borrowing firms’ equity returns," Research Discussion Papers 31/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Almeida, Vanda & Castro, Gabriela, 2008. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," MPRA Paper 13945, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aalto-Setälä , Ville & Schindler, Robert, 2006. "The importance of attractive prices in pricing dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 30/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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