Population ageing in a small open economy – some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model
AbstractThis paper extends Gertler’s (1999) tractable overlapping generations model with life-cycle features by allowing for distortionary taxation, demographic transition and stochastic variation in demographic structure. The model is then used to study demographic change in the small open economy of Finland. Simulations highlight the key role played by labour market responses to ageing. When the responses of labour supply, wages, and hence private consumption, to higher taxation are consistently accounted for, population ageing has clearly much larger effects on public finance, when compared to mechanical sustainability calculations. Stochastic simulations suggest that lengthening of working time has only a modest alleviating effect on the fiscal burden of ageing. This is due to the fact that stochastic variation in the length of working time has only a relatively small effect on the model’s dependency ratio. Variation in life expectancy is clearly much more important.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 28/2006.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 23 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
ageing; general equilibrium; public finance; demographic uncertainty;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2007-01-28 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2007-01-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2007-01-28 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985.
"Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
- Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, EconWPA.
- Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004.
"Aging, Labor Markets and Pension Reform in Austria,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004
2004-03, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets, and Pension Reform in Austria," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 359-, September.
- Keuschnigg Christian & Keuschnigg Mirela, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets and Pension Reform in Austria," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404002, EconWPA.
- Railavo , Jukka, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland.
- Juha Kilponen & Torsten Santavirta, 2004.
"Competition and Innovation - Microeconometric Evidence using Finnish Data,"
113, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Juha Kilponen & Torsten Santavirta, 2005. "Competition and Innovation - Microeconometric Evidence Using Finnish Data," Industrial Organization 0509009, EconWPA.
- Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy,"
97-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
- Mark Gertler, 1997. "Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy," NBER Working Papers 6000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989.
UCLA Economics Working Papers
547, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Freystätter, Hanna, 2003. "Price setting behavior in an open economy and the determination of Finnish foreign trade prices," Scientific Monographs E:25/2003, Bank of Finland.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977.
"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
- Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
- Cooley, Thomas F., 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 111-117, June.
- Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Erratum to "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market": [Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 214-244]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-208, October.
- Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix, 2008.
"Improving Competition in the Non-Tradable Goods and Labour Markets: The Portuguese Case,"
w200816, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
- Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Almeida, Vanda & Castro, Gabriela, 2008. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," MPRA Paper 13945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Wataru Suzuki & Tatsuo Hatta, 2007.
"Aging, Saving, and Public Pensions in Japan,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0692, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Paulo Júlio & José R. Maria, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," Working Papers w201311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Jokivuolle, Esa & Kilponen , Juha & Kuusi, Tero, 2007. "GDP at risk in a DSGE model: an application to banking sector stress testing," Research Discussion Papers 26/2007, Bank of Finland.
- Lassila , Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2008. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis," Research Discussion Papers 28/2008, Bank of Finland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.