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Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence

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Author Info
Jokipii, Terhi () (Bank of Finland Research)
Abstract

This paper studies the extent to which market crashes are predictable for a set of six countries, focusing in particular on possible differences between transition economies (The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and mature markets (UK, US and EU). We estimate a set of individual country and pooled specifications to find that market crashes, in the broader sense, are predictable for all countries analysed. We additionally investigate the role that investor heterogeneity, proxied by trading volume, plays in this predictability and find some varying results between countries. For the Central and Eastern European Countries (CE3), an increase in trading volume relative to trend appears to have great predictive power, a result that is supportive of the theory of investor heterogeneity outlined in the relevant background studies. For the more mature markets (G5), on the other hand, market crashes appear more likely to follow a period of increased stock prices and returns, a result fitting a number of traditional theories, in particular the stochastic bubble model. Further analysis, allowing for time-varying coefficients, confirms the volume-crash relationship for the CE3 and provides preliminary evidence that macro news releases may additionally contribute to the predictability of market crashes.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 22/2006.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 14 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_022

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: aggregate market returns; skewness; trading volume; market crash;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Niinimäki, Juha-Pekka & Takalo, Tuomas & Kultti, Klaus, 2006. "The role of comparing in financial markets with hidden information," Research Discussion Papers 1/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Siklos, Pierre & Bohl , Martin, 2006. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," Research Discussion Papers 2/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy, Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Robustness in monetary policymaking: a case for the Friedman rule," Research Discussion Papers 4/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bask , Mikael, 2006. "Announcement effects on exchange rate movements: continuity as a selection criterion among the REE," Research Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hasan, Iftekhar & Zazzara, Cristiano, 2006. "Pricing risky bank loans in the new Basel II environment," Research Discussion Papers 3/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Colm Kearney & Margaret Lynch, 2005. "Volume and Skewness in International Equity Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp043, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Yehning Chen & Iftekhar Hasan, 2008. "Why Do Bank Runs Look Like Panic? A New Explanation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 535-546, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mikael Bask & Tung Liu & Anna Widerberg, 2006. "The Stability of Electricity Prices: Estimation and Inference of the Lyapunov Exponent," Working Papers 200603, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Vanhala, Juuso, 2006. "Labour taxation and shock propagation in a New Keynesian model with search frictions," Research Discussion Papers 12/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility without the contrivance of fundamentals and the failure of PPP," Research Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bask, Mikael, 2006. "Adaptive learning in an expectational difference equation with several lags: selecting among learnable REE," Research Discussion Papers 7/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bask , Mikael & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2006. "Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs," Research Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Lanne , Markku & Vesala , Timo, 2006. "The effect of a transaction tax on exchange rate volatility," Research Discussion Papers 11/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Välimäki , Tuomas, 2006. "Why the marginal MRO rate exceeds the ECB policy rate?," Research Discussion Papers 20/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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