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Fundamentals and technical trading: behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs

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Author Info
Bask , Mikael () (Bank of Finland Research)
Fidrmuc , Jarko () (Department of Economics, University of Munich, CESifo and Comenius University in Bratislava)

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Abstract

We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates. Finally, we estimate the impact of the monetary fundamentals for a panel of Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the second half of the 1990s as well as the complete model of exchange rate determination for daily data over the more recent free-floating period.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 10/2006.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_010

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Related research
Keywords: foreign exchange market; fundamental analysis; panel cointegration; technical analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    Other versions:
  3. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wojcik, 2003. "Catching Up: The Role of Demand, Supply and Regulated Price Effects on the Real Exchange Rates of Four Accession Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201. [Downloadable!]
  16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2005. "The Real Exchange Rate And The Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Role Of The Distribution Sector," Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence," Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kilponen , Juha & Kinnunen , Helvi & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Population ageing in a small open economy – some policy experiments with a tractable general equilibrium model," Research Discussion Papers 28/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Toporowski , Jan, 2006. "Open market operations: beyond the new consensus," Research Discussion Papers 14/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anandarajan , Asokan & Hasan , Iftekhar & McCarthy , Cornelia, 2006. "The use of loan loss provisions for capital management, earnings management and signalling by Australian banks," Research Discussion Papers 23/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marsh , Ian W, 2006. "The effect of lenders’ credit risk transfer activities on borrowing firms’ equity returns," Research Discussion Papers 31/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data," Working Papers IES 2006/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jokivuolle , Esa & Peura , Samu, 2006. "Rating targeting and the confidence levels implicit in bank capital," Research Discussion Papers 27/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Francis , Bill B & Hasan , Iftekhar & Sun , Xian, 2006. "Financial market integration and the value of global diversification: evidence from US acquirers in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Research Discussion Papers 24/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Aalto-Setälä , Ville & Schindler, Robert, 2006. "The importance of attractive prices in pricing dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 30/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Välimäki , Tuomas, 2006. "Why the marginal MRO rate exceeds the ECB policy rate?," Research Discussion Papers 20/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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