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Robustness in monetary policymaking: a case for the Friedman rule

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Author Info
Kilponen, Juha () (Bank of Finland Research)
Leitemo, Kai () (Norwegian School of Management (BI))

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Abstract

Inflation targeting involves using all available information in stabilizing inflation around some target rate (Svensson, 2003). Inflation is typically at the very end of the transmission mechanism and hence its de-termination is subject to much model uncertainty which the central bank will want to guard against using robust policies. Such robustness comes however with the cost of increased social loss under the most likely description of the economy. We show that with a sufficiently high degree of model uncertainty, ad-herence to the Friedman rule of increasing the money stock by k percent will be superior as the price paid for robustness is smaller.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 4/2006.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 19 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_004

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: policy robustness; money growth targeting; inflation targeting; Friedman rule;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Solution of Macromodels with Hansen-Sargent Robust Policies: Some Extensions," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 499, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Leitemo , Kai & Söderström , Ulf, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carl E.Walsh, 2005. "Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 477, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  9. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 4805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Juha Kilponen, 2004. "A positive theory of monetary policy and robust control," Macroeconomics 0404036, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Juha Kilponen, 2004. "Robust expectations and uncertain models – A robust control approach with application to the New Keynesian economy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0404004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence," Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anandarajan , Asokan & Hasan , Iftekhar & McCarthy , Cornelia, 2006. "The use of loan loss provisions for capital management, earnings management and signalling by Australian banks," Research Discussion Papers 23/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kilponen, Juha & Ripatti , Antti, 2006. "Labour and product market competition in a small open economy, Simulation results using a DGE model of the Finnish economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marsh , Ian W, 2006. "The effect of lenders’ credit risk transfer activities on borrowing firms’ equity returns," Research Discussion Papers 31/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jokivuolle , Esa & Peura , Samu, 2006. "Rating targeting and the confidence levels implicit in bank capital," Research Discussion Papers 27/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Aalto-Setälä , Ville & Schindler, Robert, 2006. "The importance of attractive prices in pricing dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 30/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  8. Välimäki , Tuomas, 2006. "Why the marginal MRO rate exceeds the ECB policy rate?," Research Discussion Papers 20/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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