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Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro

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Author Info

  • Siklos, Pierre

    () (Department of Economics and Viessmann Research Centre on Modern Europe, Wilfrid Laurier University)

  • Bohl , Martin

    () (Department of Economics, Westfälische Wilhelms University Münster)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the ECB communication activities on daily Eurodollar exchange rate and interest rates. We estimate the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate using a technique that explicitly recognises the joint determination of both the levels and volatilities of these variables. We also consider more traditional estimation strategies as a test of the robustness of our main results. We introduce a new indicator of ECB communications policies that focuses on what the ECB says about the future economic outlook for the euro area along five different economic dimensions. The impact of ECB communications policies is more apparent in the time series framework than in the heteroskedasticity estimator approach. Previous studies that conclude that news effects are significant at the daily frequency may have reached such a conclusion because the measurement of news was too highly aggregated. The endogeneity of the exchange rate – interest rate relationship is more apparent when the proxy for monetary policy is the euro area – US differential than when any other proxy for monetary policy is employed. Finally, interest rate changes generally have a much larger impact on exchange rate movements, and their volatility, than do ECB verbal pronouncements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 2/2006.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 11 Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2006_002

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Keywords: communication policy; exchange rates; interest rates; volatility;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2005. "European Monetary Policy Surprises: The Aggregate and Sectoral Stock Market Response," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  3. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  4. Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Working Paper Series 973, European Central Bank.
  6. Balazs Egert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 2612, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
  8. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).

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