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The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy

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  • Puhakka , Mikko

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Oulu)

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    Abstract

    We study the effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy in overlapping generations models with government debt and a pay-as-you-go pension system. The smaller the population growth rate, the lower the maximum sustainable level of deficits. When the utility function is of a specific form, an increase in the payroll tax rate and the replacement rate decreases the level of maximum sustainable deficits; except in the case when pension depends on the wage level prevailing during the working period. The ratio of the deficits in two economies with different population growth rates is characterized with numerical examples.

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    File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0526netti.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 26/2005.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 11 Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_026

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    Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
    Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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    Keywords: aging; pensions; overlapping generations; fiscal policy;

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    1. Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-53, June.
    2. Eytan Sheshinski, 1977. "A Model of Social Security and Retirement Decisions," NBER Working Papers 0187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cass, David & Okuno, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak., . "The Role of Money in Supporting the Pareto Optimality of Competitive Equilibrium in Consumption-Loan Type Models," Working Papers 242, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    4. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918.
    6. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Soares, Jorge, 1996. "Will social security survive the baby boom?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 89-121, December.
    8. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December.
    9. Peter A. Diamond, 1997. "Macroeconomics Aspects of Social Security Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 1-88.
    10. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
    11. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, 06.
    12. Joines, Douglas H., 1999. "Will social security and medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging? : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 55-60, June.
    13. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
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