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Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations

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  • Paloviita , Maritta

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

Abstract

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, di-rect measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward-looking, and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expecta-tions. Consequently, even allowing for possible non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in Europe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 22/2005.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Applied Economics.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_022

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Keywords: Phillips curve; expectations; Europe;

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References

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  21. Paloviita , Maritta, 2002. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations," Research Discussion Papers 20/2002, Bank of Finland.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.
  3. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  4. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-88, March.
  5. Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of Stability and Growth Pact Reform Proposals in a Small-Scale Macro Framework," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. Buchmann, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
  7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h0g8tgo is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
  9. Maritta Paloviita, 2009. "On the Generality of the New Keynesian Phillips Curves," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(55), pages 7-32, July - Se.
  10. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note," Discussion Papers 329, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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