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Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations

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Author Info
Paloviita , Maritta () (Bank of Finland Research)

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Abstract

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, di-rect measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward-looking, and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expecta-tions. Consequently, even allowing for possible non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in Europe.

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Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 22/2005.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2005
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Publication status: Forthcoming in Applied Economics.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_022

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; expectations; Europe;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips curves - a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive learning, persistence, and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 644, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Imperfect Common Knowledge and the Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
  2. Puhakka , Mikko, 2005. "The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy," Research Discussion Papers 26/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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