This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Crowley , Patrick () (Bank of Finland Research and College of Business, Texas A&M University)
Lee , Jim (College of Business, Texas A&M University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employ-ing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the euro area by scale. Lastly dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of cycles through time. The general findings are that euro area members fall into one of three categories: i) high and dynamic correlations at all frequency cycles (eg France, Belgium, Germany), ii) low static and dy-namic correlations, with little sign of convergence occurring (eg Greece), and iii) low static correlation but convergent dynamic correlations (eg Finland and Ireland).

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/9144387A-B8BA-49EF-B776-3C0FF50F2BF9/0/0512netti.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 12/2005.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 11 May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2005_012

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Minna Valkama).

Related research
Keywords: business cycles; growth cycles; European Union; multiresolution analysis; wavelets; co-correlation; dynamic correlation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Patrick Crowley, 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Econometrics 0503017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 65-119. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-15, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. A'Hearn, Brian & Woitek, Ulrich, 2001. "More international evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-346, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  23. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Duarte, Agustin & Holden, Ken, 2003. "The business cycle in the G-7 economies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 685-700. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Kontolemis, Zenon G, 1997. "Does Growth Vary over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence from the G7 Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 441-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  28. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Antonio Matas Mir & Denise R Osborn, 2004. "Seasonal adjustment and the detection of business cycle phases," Working Paper Series 357, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  31. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Anna Maria Agresti & Benoit Mojon, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the Euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  33. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Crowley , Patrick & Maraun , Douglas & Mayes , David, 2006. "How hard is the euro are core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Crowley, Patrick, 2008. "One Money, Several Cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use convenient plug-ins to search directly IDEAS from your browser.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.