This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Adaptive learning and multiple equilibria in a natural rate monetary model with unemployment persistence

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Rantala, Anssi (Bank of Finland Research)
Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibrium selection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence. In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations equilibria is stable under least-squares learning, and that it is always the low-inflation equilibrium with intuitive comparative statics properties that is the learnable equilibrium. Hence, this paper provides a basic theoretical justification for focusing on the low-inflation equilibrium. Earlier contributions, in which the high-inflation equilibrium was ignored, mainly because of its unpleasant characteristics, are not theoretically satisfactory.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/0821DA02-E20D-466B-A9EC-3DAC4F54EB41/0/0330.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 30/2003.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2003_030

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Minna Nyman).

Related research
Keywords: adaptive learning; monetary policy; multiple equilibria; persistence;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lockwood, Ben, 1997. "State-Contingent Inflation Contracts and Unemployment Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 286-99, August.
  3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Lockwood, Ben & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1998. "Designing Monetary Policy When Unemployment Persists," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(259), pages 327-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jensen, Henrik, 1999. "Monetary policy cooperation and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1133-1153, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-95, August.
    Other versions:
  9. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1994. "Insider Power, Unemployment Dynamics and Multiple Inflation Equilibria," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(241), pages 59-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Henrik Jensen, 1999. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 342-347, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
    Other versions:
  14. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-39, May.
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anssi Rantala, 2004. "Labour market flexibility and policy coordination in a monetary union," Macroeconomics 0405001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rantala, Anssi, 2003. "Labour market flexibility and policy coordination in a monetary union," Research Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes books.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.