Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy
AbstractIn this paper we analyse disinflation policy in two environments. In the first, the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated; in the second, the central bank has to learn the private sector inflation forecasting rule. With imperfect knowledge, results depend on the learning scheme that is employed. Here, the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter. A novel feature of a learning-based policy – as against the central bank’s disinflation policy under perfect knowledge – is that the degree of monetary accommodation (the extent to which the central bank accommodates private sector inflation expectations) is no longer constant across the disinflation, but becomes state-dependent. This means that the central bank’s behaviour changes during the disinflation as it collects more information.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 20/2003.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 18 Aug 2003
Date of revision:
learning; rational expectations; separation principle; Kalman filter; time-varying parameters; optimal control;
Other versions of this item:
- Eric Schaling, 2004. "Learning, inflation expectations and optimal monetary policy," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0404035, EconWPA.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
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