Reconciling the New Keynesian model with observed persistence
AbstractDespite sound theoretical foundations a drawback of the New Keynesian model is its inability to generate adequate persistence in the variables it seeks to explain. A common solution is to modify the model to include lagged variables. However, this is unsatisfactory as many such modifications depart from the microeconomic underpinnings of the original model. This paper presents results from simulation exercises that support the fully forward-looking New Keynesian model. In particular, we show that the exchange rate channel of monetary policy, which has been largely overlooked in existing studies of persistence, is instrumental in generating inflation persistence. However, the combination of full forward-looking behaviour and an open economy is unable to generate sufficient persistence in the output gap. By including an autocorrelated noise term to the assumption of rational expectations, the model is capable of generating persistence that match those of US inflation, the output gap, the nominal interest rate, as well as the real exchange rate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 19/2002.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 03 Sep 2002
Date of revision:
new Keynesian model; rational expectations; persistence; open economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John M. Roberts, 2001.
"How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberts John M., 2005. "How Well Does the New Keynesian Sticky-Price Model Fit the Data?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, September.
- Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999.
"Forward-looking rules for monetary policy,"
Bank of England working papers
91, Bank of England.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002.
"Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000.
"Open-economy inflation targeting,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997.
"The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001.
"New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000.
"The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, John B, 1980.
"Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
- Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
- Railavo , Jukka, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland.
- Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, EconWPA.
- Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404020, EconWPA.
- Railavo, Jukka, 2003. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Research Discussion Papers 34/2003, Bank of Finland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.