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Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model

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Author Info
Ehrmann , Michael
Ellison, Martin
Valla, Natacha

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Abstract

In this paper we introduce identifying restrictions into a Markov-switching vector autoregression model. We define a separate set of impulse responses for each Markov regime to show how fundamental disturbances affect the variables in the model dependent on the regime. We go to illustrate the use of these regime-dependent impulse response functions in a model of the U.S. economy. The regimes we identify come close to the “old” and “new economy” regimes found in recent research. We provide evidence that oil price shocks are much less contractionary and inflationary than they used to be. We show furthermore that the decoupling of the US economic performance from oil price shocks cannot be explained by “good luck” alone, but that structural changes within the US economy have taken place.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 11/2001.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 03 Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2001_011

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Keywords: vector autoregression; regime switching; shocks; new economy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Shocks and the Cycle in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Working Papers eco99/30, European University Institute.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Hutchison, Michael M., 1993. "Structural change and the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks: empirical evidence from the United States and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 587-606, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2001. "Rising oil prices and economic turmoil: must they always go hand in hand?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 4-9. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ehrmann, M., 2000. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission - Evidence from German Business Survey Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/12, European University Institute.
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  10. Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 153-171, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ippei Fujiwara, 2004. "Evaluating Monetary Policy When Nominal Interest Rates Are Almost Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 620, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Regime-switching Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis of UK meat consumption," Econometrics 0409007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission – Evidence from German Business Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for M1," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 690, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Gregory Gadzinski & Mathias Hoffmann, 2004. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Current Account: Evidence from Long-Horizon Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 13, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Korhonen, Tapio, 2001. "Finnish monetary and foreign exchange policy and the changeover to the euro," Research Discussion Papers 25/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks - are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Natacha Valla & Martin Ellison, 2000. "Learning, uncertainty and Central Bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions," Working Paper Series 28, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carlo Altavilla & Luigi Landolfo, 2005. "Do central banks act asymmetrically? Empirical evidence from the ECB and the Bank of England," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 507-519, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christophe Schalck, 2007. "Effects of Fiscal Policies in Four European Countries: A Non-linear Structural VAR Approach," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(22), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  11. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Peter Tillmann, 2001. "The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2001, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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