The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence from UK Index-Linked Bonds
AbstractThis paper studies the behavior of the default-risk-free real term structure and term premia in two general equilibrium endowment economies with complete markets but without money. In the first economy there are no frictions as in Lucas (1978) and in the second risk-sharing is limited by the risk of default as in Alvarez and Jermann (2000ab). Both models are solved numerically, calibrated to UK aggregate and household data, and the predictions are compared to data on real interest rates constructed from the UK index-linked data. While both models produce time-varying risk or term premia, only the model with limited risk-sharing can generate enough variation in the term premia to account for the rejections of expectations hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 22/2000.
Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: 29 Dec 2000
Date of revision:
term structure of interest rates; general equilibrium; default risk; term premia; index-linked bonds;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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- Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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