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Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area

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Author Info

  • Mayes, David G

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

  • Virén, Matti

    ()
    (Bank of Finland Research)

Abstract

This paper highlights the implications for EU macroeconomic policy at a relatively disaggregated level when key economic relationships are nonlinear or asymmetric. Using data for the EU and OECD countries we show that there are considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the Phillips and Okun curves. High unemployment has a relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Downturns in the economy are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down. There is considerable variety in these relationships and in IS curves across not just countries but also sectors and regions.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/0011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 11/2000.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2000_011

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Keywords: aggregation; asymmetry; monetary policy; nonlinear models; Okun curve; Phillips curve;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Civcir, Irfan & Akçaglayan, AnIl, 2010. "Inflation targeting and the exchange rate: Does it matter in Turkey?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 339-354, May.
  3. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  4. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  5. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
  6. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 86, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
  8. Kangasharju, A. & Tavera, C. & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "Regional growth and unemployment. The validity of Okun's law for the Finnish regions," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  9. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
  10. VirÉn, Matti, 2000. "Fiscal Policy, Automatic Stabilisers and Policy Coordination in EMU," Discussion Papers 744, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  11. Giovanni BUSETTA & Dario CORSO, 2008. "La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia," Working Papers 320, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  12. Andrzej Toroj, 2008. "Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland," Working Papers 27, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  13. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2007. "Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 45-61, March.

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