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Stock Return Volatility on Scandinavian Stock Markets and the Banking Industry

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  • Hyytinen, Ari

    ()
    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolution of the (conditional) volatility of returns on three Scandinavian markets (Finland, Norway and Sweden) over the turbulent period of the past decade, namely the overlapping periods of financial liberalisation, drastically changing macroeconomic conditions and banking crisis. We find that even over this relatively turbulent period volatility is in most cases successfully captured by past volatility and shocks to past volatility, ie by a (symmetric) GARCH process. In each country banking crisis has induced regime shifts in (unconditional) volatility. We also find evidence for cross-country volatility spillovers during the banking crisis episodes. The estimated volatility patterns suggest that even though the volatility of returns was of very high magnitude during the years of banking crisis, developments within the banking industry were not reflected in market uncertainty until all the damage had been done and the severe problems afflicting banks began to be realised in full.

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File URL: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/9919.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 19/1999.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 20 Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1999_019

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/
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Related research

Keywords: GARCH; conditional volatility; banking crisis; volatility spillovers;

References

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  1. Donald P. Morgan, 1999. "Whether and why banks are opaque," Proceedings 636, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
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  9. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  10. E Philip Davis, 1999. "Financial data needs for macroprudential surveillance - What are the key indicators of risks to domestic financial stability?," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 2, November.
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  12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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  14. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1sn269d7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  16. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  17. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 118-38, Supplemen.
  18. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Viviana Fernández, 2001. "A Liquidity Premium Puzzle?: Evidence from Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 105, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  2. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets: A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Liquidity on the Scandinavian Order-driven Stock Exchanges," CAFO Working Papers 2009:11, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.

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