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Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes with Continuous Structural Changes

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Author Info
Ripatti, Antti () (Bank of Finland Research)
Saikkonen, Pentti

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Abstract

We extend the conventional cointegrated VAR model to allow for general nonlinear deterministic trends. These nonlinear trends can be used to model gradual structural changes in the intercept term of the cointegrating relations. A general asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference is reviewed and a diagnostic test for testing the correct specification of an employed nonlinear trend is developed. The methods are applied to Finnish interest rate data. A smooth level shift of the logistic form between the own-yield of broad money and the short-term money market rate is found appropriate for these data. The level shift is motivated by the deregulation of issuing certificates of deposit and its inclusion in the model solves the puzzle of 'missing cointegration vector' found in a previous study.

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File URL: http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/4196F4CC-0D7B-482D-9316-CDC0BC873CCB/0/DP_29_1998.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Finland in its series Research Discussion Papers with number 29/1998.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 16 Dec 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:1998_029

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Postal: Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Web page: http://www.bof.fi/en/tutkimus
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Related research
Keywords: cointegrated VAR model; gradual structural change; nonlinear deterministic trend;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mayes, D.G. & Viren, M., 1998. "The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance 27/98, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
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  2. Mayes, D.G., 1998. "Evolving Voluntary Rules for the Operation of European Central Bank," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance 2/98, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
  3. Mayes, D.G., 1998. "Improving Bankin Supervision," Bank of Finland - Studies in Economics and Finance 23/98, Bank of Finland. Research Department..
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Wagner, 2002. "A Comparison of Johansen's, Bierens and the Subspace Algorithm Method for Cointegration Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0210, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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